The Global South Leading the Climate Agenda Amid Uncertainty

There is no doubt that 2025 will be a challenging year for the climate agenda. President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement and dismantle the Green New Deal raises concerns about the rise of climate denialism, signaling a critical juncture for progress in the energy transition.

However, U.S. policies do not necessarily dictate the path forward for all nations or companies. Environmental and climate challenges will remain acute. The renewable energy transition will proceed, reflecting consumer demand and economic opportunity. And multinational organizations will have to meet the expectations of stakeholders around the world, including in countries that continue to pursue aggressive climate targets. Strategies therefore need to be evaluated, adjusted, and, if necessary, redirected toward regions that prioritize sustainable development.

Amid a geopolitical context marked by challenges, polarization, and power fragmentation — with tensions between the United States, the European Union and China — 2025 is poised to be a year of leadership for the Global South. Brazil, in particular, is expected to assume a prominent role in the environmental agenda. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has advocated for the country to lead global discussions on environmental protection, adopting a conciliatory stance between nations from the Global North and South.

The World Economic Forum in Davos (Switzerland), themed “Collaboration in the Age of Intelligence,” has included “safeguarding the planet” as a core focus, aligning with Brazil’s ambitions. Alexandre Silveira, Brazil’s Minister of Mines and Energy, participated in the event, seeking to attract investments previously directed toward the United States. Silveira highlighted Brazil’s energy portfolio — including biofuels, hydropower, critical minerals and oil — and its vast potential in sustainable solutions, bioeconomy, and environmental conservation.

Brazil’s influence on the global climate agenda was already evident in 2024 when the country emphasized sustainable development and the energy transition as central themes during its G20 presidency. This year, as chair of the BRICS — a bloc comprising some of the world’s largest emerging economies — the Latin-American nation has prioritized enhancing financial structures to address climate change.

With an energy matrix composed of more than 90% renewable sources — hydropower, solar, biomass, wind, and nuclear — Brazil is already a global leader in clean energy. Over the past two years, the country has implemented a robust sustainability policy in the energy sector, which positioned it as the top-ranking emerging nation on the 2024 Energy Transition Index.

Recently, Brazil approved a law establishing a regulatory framework for offshore wind installations, expanding its already vast onshore potential. With global data centers required to use only clean and renewable energy in light of the growth of artificial intelligence, the country — which holds the world’s seventh-largest uranium reserves — is expected to heavily invest in nuclear energy in the coming years, betting on small modular reactor technology. Additionally, it’s the leading nation in the production of biofuels like ethanol and biodiesel, exemplifying how to combine innovation, sustainability, and economic development to become an energy powerhouse.

Thanks to legal security, a favorable geopolitical position and its ability to engage in global dialogue, businesses view Brazil as fertile ground for international investments.

However, the Brazilian economy remains under-industrialized and heavily dependent on fossil fuel exploration. The government defends its right to continue exploiting hydrocarbon resources during the energy transition, arguing that these compounds can generate clean energy due to the hydropower resources embedded in petroleum extraction.

The country also faces other significant challenges, such as the urgent need to curb illegal deforestation. To address this, Brazil has invested in strengthening the Amazon bioeconomy and creating sustainable production chains that combine environmental preservation with economic value generation while recognizing the traditional knowledge of indigenous and local communities. Initiatives such as the Amazon Fund have become successful examples of securing international resources for environmental conservation.

The COP30, scheduled for November 2025 in Belém, is expected to further solidify Brazil’s and the Global South’s leadership in the climate agenda. As the host country, Brazil has signaled its intention to prioritize securing increased financial assistance from developed nations to support the energy transition in developing economies. The discussions will also address the “adaptation issue,” which gained prominence after the floods that impacted the state of Rio Grande do Sul last year.

The challenges are significant, but Brazil’s determination to promote sustainable development can not only inspire other Global South nations but also establish a new standard for international cooperation, reaffirming the importance of dialogue and collective action in a world calling for meaningful change.