Playing the Hand You’re Dealt: Business Strategy in Trump’s Second Term
The return of Donald Trump to the White House brings a familiar unpredictability to the business landscape. Companies now find themselves navigating a high-stakes game where the rules are constantly shifting, policy moves are often advanced through bravado rather than traditional processes, and the cost of making the wrong bet can be severe. For business leaders and communications professionals alike, the best play may be to treat this new reality like a poker table — because that’s exactly what it is. And in poker, the winners aren’t necessarily the boldest or loudest; they’re the savviest.
Understanding Your Hand and The Players
Before making any moves, business leaders must assess not only their own positions but also the motivations and strategies of others at the table — from policymakers and competitors to investors and consumers. President Trump’s second term will be shaped by a complex mix of political alliances, economic pressures and global uncertainties. Some industries will see tailwinds from deregulation and tax incentives, while others may face headwinds from tariffs or policy shifts. At the same time, businesses must anticipate how key stakeholders — including customers, employees and trade associations — will react to shifting policies and corporate decisions. The companies that succeed won’t be the ones making the loudest moves but the ones that can anticipate how the game is unfolding, adjust their strategies accordingly and find opportunities amid the chaos.
Know Your own Risk Tolerance
Every player at the table needs to understand their own limits before placing bets. In the business world, that means having a clear-eyed assessment of your company’s ability to weather potential tariffs, regulatory and legal changes, or supply chain disruptions. For communicators, that means understanding your increasingly fragmented and polarized audiences, what’s fueling sentiment and the impact of policy changes on your business and corporate reputation. The Trump Administration’s economic policies — especially regarding trade, taxation and deregulation — are likely to be aggressive and significantly different from the Biden Administration and even the first Trump Administration. Some companies can afford to take big risks and make grand pronouncements in anticipation of favorable policies; others, such as those in heavily regulated industries or those more reliant on trade policies, need to play a more cautious hand. Knowing where you fall on that risk-tolerance spectrum can be the difference between measured strategy and reckless gambling.
Watch for the Tell
Unlike more traditional politicians, President Trump usually signals exactly what he wants – albeit in a sometimes cryptic manner. His statements usually reveal his real objectives. Whether it’s pushing for lower corporate taxes, aggressive tariffs or a crackdown on immigration, businesses need to decipher his words carefully. The pattern of his past behavior suggests that his initial declarations, while dramatic, eventually crystallize into something more actionable. If leaders learn to recognize the signals and lean on insiders who are closer to the source for advice and counsel, they can better anticipate his moves and adjust accordingly.
Don’t Fall for the Bluff
President Trump is, if nothing else, a master of the bluff. His dramatic rhetoric, sudden policy shifts and social media-fueled proclamations can shake markets and influence everything from corporate decision-making to geopolitics. But in poker, the best players don’t react emotionally to a bluff; they calculate whether it’s real or just posturing – and they know whose hand the odds favor at each point in the game. Business leaders need to do the same. The key is not to overreact to every headline or post, but instead to determine, informed by experience and an understanding of the implementation process, which policies will truly materialize, and which are more likely mere leverage plays. And recognize which corporate positions and public statements will advance an organization’s mission rather than simply joining the tumult.
Folding Early is Not a Crime
There’s wisdom in knowing when to walk away from a bad hand. Some businesses will find that the new administration’s policies create insurmountable challenges for certain strategies or markets. Likewise, smart communicators will sense an unwinnable argument and favor discretion over valor. Exiting a venture, shifting resources, refining commitments, staying quiet or even rethinking market positions isn’t a sign of weakness – it’s strategic survival. Knowing when to fold can prevent unnecessary losses and keep companies in the game for the next hand.
Don’t Go All In Without Reading the Table
One of the biggest mistakes in poker — and business — is making a flashy move without understanding the other players. Worse yet, not recognizing that the rules have suddenly changed. President Trump’s second term will bring a complex mix of political, cultural and economic forces, a volatile global landscape, and the unpredictable actions of corporate competitors. Smart businesses will adapt to this playing style and its fluid rules. They will resist the urge to go all in too soon on long-term plans or grand pronouncements that are hard to walk away from. Instead, they will wait for a clearer picture before making major strategic shifts. Business leaders may not be able to predict the president’s exact hand, but they can closely watch all the players, determine a range of possible plays — including the use of alliances and responses by industry associations — and plan accordingly.
Winning the Long Game
The ultimate measure of success in the game is not winning every single hand but accumulating the most chips over time and achieving one’s objective in the contest. The next four years will require corporate leaders and communicators to think like seasoned players: keep the big picture and big goals in mind, know when to bet, when to hold, when to fold and, most importantly, when to call the bluff. Those who master this approach won’t just survive President Trump’s second term; they can come out ahead.
