The Geopolitical Shift Facing Business Leaders 

The days of the ‘Davos man’, the billionaire business leader leveraging the rules-based, international capitalist system for gain defined in Peter Goodman’s 2023 book, seem numbered. With geopolitical disruption reshaping the world, he will soon be replaced by the ‘corporate diplomat’, a new breed of executive – gender irrelevant – who needs a deft touch and different strategic approach to manage the forces out of their control.  

The 2025 Davos agenda includes catalyzing growth amid geopolitical shocks, investing in people and supporting the energy transition. But topics on CEOs’ minds are far broader. International security and conflict. Populist and nationalist movements. Protectionism and trade barriers. The climate crisis’s human and economic impacts. Radical technology disruption.  

The issues are complex and nuanced. So is the cast of protagonists and antagonists that need to be addressed by the corporate diplomat, a concept introduced by Deloitte in 2024. It is not always clear which ones are friend or foe. 

The landscape is being shaped by a surge of influence from new powers and alliances, including many of the markets that are most attractive for investment as Western economies stagnate. But these new powers may not be beholden to the rules-based system the Davos man knows well. Navigating and negotiating between business and political leaders operating to different standards becomes a test of diplomatic skill and communication capabilities that may be unfamiliar to the CEO and C-suite members.  

Simultaneously, the divergence among traditional allies presents growing risk for business leaders.  

The gulf on climate action between the Trump administration and the EU and UK will create strain around investment and transparency. Different approaches to technology regulation versus enablement may complicate decisions on scaling AI usage or leveraging data. And the challenge of securing Chinese investment while managing the potential perceived threat of China’s security and economic agenda will be more difficult, given the White House’s likely demands and expectations of U.S. allies regarding China.  

For the corporate diplomat, effective communication is key to success.  

Messages on business strategy, corporate values and operational choices will face more scrutiny, needing more care to ensure consistency and cultural sensitivity when delivered across markets.  

Companies will need to incorporate a wider range of stakeholders’ views in decisions, requiring a better understanding of non-American or non-Western perspectives to reflect their full supply chain or sales footprint. 

Stronger relationships with stakeholders will be vital. Politicians, partners, employees or customers in far-flung markets – particularly for companies operating with a “U.S.” and “rest of world” mentality – will be more influential, requiring them to be embraced by the corporate diplomat, not just managed. 

Finally, leaders must brace for new levels of transparency about business decisions, relationships and impact that may be uncomfortable or disruptive. Beyond regulations like the EU’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD), multinational companies may face greater exposure to domestic political dynamics, media scrutiny and societal expectations around the world. They will all add complications to the CEO’s efforts to drive business growth. 

The Davos man may struggle to adapt to this new environment. But the corporate diplomat will see the opportunity for business growth and will rise to the occasion, at forums like Davos and in their work every day around the world. 

Ahead of Inauguration Day on Monday (Jan. 20), President-elect Donald Trump continues to offer new comments regarding his plans for governing. These announcements include executive orders he intends to sign on Day 1, as well as other shifts in policy that have significant implications for the global economy. As with every presidential transition, there are policy changes and priorities for the incoming administration that will shift the narrative and business climate in Washington and around the country. 

Every four years, these announcements should inform an organization’s planning to navigate shifts in the business, political and regulatory environments. Equally, leaders must consider how (and if) they communicate about the new administration’s policies with customers, employees, investors and other stakeholders. 

Though President-elect Trump and his team are planning to take widespread action through already proposed executive orders on Day 1, there is a high likelihood of unanticipated directives to executive agencies, remarks he makes in his inaugural address and posts on social platforms that have additional implications for organizations. 

Organization leaders, risk managers and communications teams should be prepared to monitor actively, and plan responses across a range of scenarios based on business objectives and organizational values. Special attention should be given to those scenarios that are closest to the intersection between the organization’s goals and the new Trump administration’s priorities. 

Immigration and trade are two of his highest priorities and action on these issues in particular will permeate the national narrative, and may have a substantial impact on people, organizations and their employees, and industries in the U.S. and around the world. Audiences that are important to an organization’s success may respond in a sharply polarized and highly emotional way. Communications planning is critical. 

Immigration and Undocumented Individuals 

President-elect Trump, his nominees and his allies have made clear that one of his immediate priorities will be the deportation of undocumented individuals. These efforts have the potential to impact nearly every industry in some way because they will impact workforces, customers, supply chains and families. 

Although many businesses and institutions do not employ undocumented workers directly or through contract labor providers, even organizations that are not affected by immigration action may experience a knock-on effect because of impacts to supply chains, workforces and communities. Although the incoming administration has said it believes it can take actions without undue disruption to business and the economy, the scale of proposed deportation is very large and untried.   

Leaders at employers of all sizes should understand their organization’s vulnerabilities and, in addition to business continuity planning, should also have scenario-based communications plans in place. For example, executive orders for the immediate deportation of undocumented workers and expanded U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement actions, may lead to staffing challenges as both documented and undocumented workers stay home out of fear. This could compound challenges to organizations’ labor supply during a time of low unemployment. Organizations across sectors – especially those in agriculture, food and beverage, manufacturing, construction and hospitality – may also face increased scrutiny from immigration authorities. 

Even if an organization is not directly impacted by these changes, they may be asked questions by employees, the media, elected officials or the local community. Communications teams should anticipate and address these questions now to be prepared.  

Tariffs and Trade 

Another top Trump priority is to install steep tariffs to advance his trade, economic and political priorities. 

U.S. organizations will face increased financial pressure once U.S. tariffs impact the cost and availability of imported materials. They are likely to become more complicated if foreign countries enact their own retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports, as some have promised. Businesses in the U.S. and abroad will need to consider how they address these costs, including whether they pass them onto their customers. 

Regardless of size or sector, almost all organizations will be impacted in specific ways by the tariffs because they will have a sizeable impact on supply chains, consumer behavior and global trade. In some cases, organizations may realize a market advantage if competitors are more significantly impacted by tariffs. Communications leaders must prepare now for how to communicate these changes and consider how different audiences will respond. 

Preparing for Communications 

Understanding potential impacts – which may occur as early as Jan. 20, or at any point during the administration – and continually readying plans to activate against realistic positive and negative scenarios will help support business continuity and bolster corporate positioning and brand reputation efforts. 

It is critical to have a finger on the pulse of sentiment among an organization’s most-important audiences, map scenarios based on shifting political and economic dynamics and be prepared to activate communications at a moment’s notice. Organizations will need to determine positions on the administration’s expected actions, and consider how their public positions may differ from privately expressed positions in the context of important relationships, such as with regulators or business partners. 

Management teams and communications leaders will need to determine protocols for rapid, accurate response to both anticipated and unexpected situations, deciding in advance the principles and processes for how to communicate. These include decision-making around whether to respond – and if so, when – identification of priority audiences, staging and priority of internal and external communications, and choices of spokesperson, timing and channels. 

Importantly, organizations must carefully evaluate if and how they will react given the organization’s (potentially polarized or easily activated) stakeholder groups, including employees, customers, partners, shareholders and local communities. In many cases, the best course of action will be to engage an industry organization to magnify support or deflect negative attention on a particular policy. 

While this is normal practice, it is important for every organization to refresh its understanding of the current and expected positions their industry organizations will take on their members’ behalf on key issues. Organizations should also monitor and analyze how competitors and detractors are using industry and other groups for leverage or protection, and what they are saying and doing individually. It may be necessary to join new alliances or create new groups to achieve the desired results over the next four years. The time to make that evaluation is now, before a new affiliation is needed. 

More broadly, mapping of risks, stakeholders and relationships coupled with an action plan and protocols will help organizations navigate what will be a rapidly changing political landscape during this second Trump term. Integrating this work into a strategic public affairs plan will ensure that communications responses are agile, rapid and protect an organization’s ability to operate and support its aims in Washington. 

A wide range of government actions and policies will create opportunities and risks for every organization that is based in, operates in or does business with the United States. FleishmanHillard’s public affairs leaders, issue specialists and business sector experts are well prepared to help clients navigate today’s new era in Washington.  

For more information, please contact FleishmanHillard’s public affairs team at dcpubaffrsgrp@fleishman.com. 

As 2024’s big year of sport is ending, we have an opportunity to reflect upon all that transpired over the summer in Paris as well as at international soccer events held in Germany and the United States.

Going into the end of the year, each week we’re seeing another brand announce a new partnership with a major governing body with an eye to the 2026 global sporting events in North America and Italy, and 2028 in the United States. For any brand looking to make a similar strategic investment – or for a brand in any stage of partnership in the world of sport – it is worthwhile to use the experiences of 2024 to glean insights for future plans.

While there were some amazing celebrations, there were also moments of crisis. Major tournaments this year were shaped by significant global factors, including geopolitical tensions, sabotage of critical infrastructure, crowd management issues, cultural controversies and misinformation. Additionally, extreme weather events such as flooding and high temperatures disrupted multiple events, highlighting the evolving challenges faced by organizers in an increasingly complex world.

And as in past years, the politics, rhetoric and policies of a host nation are on full display and the mega-tournaments and events often become an extension of the host nation’s efforts to influence international perceptions. With major tournaments being hosted in North America in 2026 and 2028, brands should take note that the United States has a long history of political protest and social commentary being infused in its sports. With the political climate continuing to be front of mind for many because of the recent U.S. elections, global brands will need to navigate how their involvement and partnerships will be interpreted across a diverse range of stakeholder groups that may be in direct or indirect opposition due to politics.

What is clear is that while major tournaments offer large rewards, they also pose unique risks. Therefore, it is necessary to start planning now as the risk environment is becoming increasingly more difficult to manage. Heading into 2025 and beyond, here’s how communicators must prepare well in advance with risk mitigation and crisis management practices:

Start planning immediately: Ensure budgets are appropriately allocated to include risk management as a core foundation and start mapping the risk landscape based on what we learned in 2024 and the risks in the years ahead, establish the workback plans and cross-enterprise governance structure necessary to protect your reputation alongside your investment.

Establish an intelligence gathering process: The social media framework many of us rely on for information gathering is becoming more fractured and closed. Ensure that the appropriate teams have identified the right set of channels and tools to keep you apprised of trends, emerging risks and realized threats and start monitoring now. It’s not too early to have an eye on the conversation that your brand is looking to enter.

Build a culture of asking hard questions: Pressure test campaigns, partnerships and plans to ensure that you’ve anticipated how your stakeholders might respond and that you’re mitigating against potential issues that could be avoided, also known as, ‘own goals.’

Create a response process and train against it: It is well established that everyday business practices are insufficient in responding to moments of crisis. Ensure that you have a response team in place as well as the necessary escalation and decision-making process. Codify those processes in a plan and train the organization against that plan, looking for opportunities to strengthen any identified vulnerabilities before kickoff.

Increasingly, as brands look to use mega-sporting events to advance their reputation, they not only have to be prepared for the typical crises that surround a major gathering, but also all the risks associated with a major brand and reputation activation in our increasingly polarized world. The simple truth is this, it is no longer enough for organizations to approach these partnerships and events with a “check the box” crisis playbook that is developed in the final months before the big day. The brands that will truly win at these events will be those that embrace ongoing reputation risk management programs, structured to identify potential threats inherent in marketing activations and in the external environment, mitigate those risks and respond to moments when they materialize. If you are having planning conversations about how you activate for some of the largest celebrations in the world, you should already be actively working to protect that investment.